According to Mitch Bainwol, who sits atop the RIAA as its CEO, illegal file-sharing via the Internet has been "contained".

"The problem has not been eliminated," says Bainwol. "But we believe digital downloads have emerged into a growing, thriving business, and file-trading is flat."

According to USA Today, Bainwol acknowledges that legal digital downloads are making up for long-slumping CD sales, and cites this evidence along with surveys of 12,000 households to back up his statement on containment.

Why would Bainwol, stalwart anti-P2P man that he is, come out in the press selling the story of how the RIAA has "contained" the battle against P2P services? Surely the news that P2P has been "contained" must be a relief to the RIAA and all those pesky lawsuits will be over post-haste, right?

Simply not so, according to Eric Garland, CEO of Internet measurement firm Big Champagne, who says more people than ever are using file-sharing networks. "Nearly 10 million people are on-line, swapping media, at any given time,". That May figure is up from 8.7 million people in 2005, he says.

Bainwol's motivation may come from slipping public perception of the RIAA lawsuits. Mitch's predecessor, Hillary Rosen, recently stated the suits had outlived their useful lifespan. Calling P2P "contained" in the press would give the RIAA a perfect exit strategy. Using this logic, the RIAA can gracefully point to a time-line that looks roughly like this...

1. We sued some people
2. P2P growth flattened
3. File-sharing was contained
4. We diverted our efforts to stopping those nasty thieves at XM

All before the PR pressure of suing those who are young, old, dead or without a computer gains any real traction with average Americans.

CEO Garland of Big Champagne points out that the RIAA has made some inroads. "They have removed the profiteers from on-line piracy," he says. "They've also embarked on a very successful education campaign. Kids now know about copyright, and the consequences."

What Garland, Bainwol and USA Today forget to tell you is, the RIAA has also succeeded in stifling innovation. Save for the few indie music distributors on-line (Magnatune, eMusic, and the like who offer non-RIAA music only), the digital music market looks like a sea of clones. Subscription services with sub-par quality, similar prices, terms and selection, or iTunes with it's proprietary iPod, fixed pricing structure and non-transferability.

They've managed to redefine fair-use, and continue to tweak the definition. They are the only show in town, and that's just the way they like it. The RIAA's cartel status allows its member companies to bully the rest of the industry, refusing to license music for other distribution models, price fixing, and allegations of cheating artists on royalties from digital downloads are just a few of the strong-arm tactics they continue to pursue.

If the RIAA won, this is all they won. A bland and lifeless digital music market with few real players, where a veritable sea of possibilities once lie open to discovery.